S&P 500 in correction territory. Tesla losing half of its value in the last 3 months. Tens of thousands of Federal employees fired. Trade wars just began and show no signs of easing. Inflation going back up. Consumer confidence lowest since 2022. Weakening retail sales. A rise in unemployment. Inverted Yield Curve. A rise in national debt. A decrease in housing activity. Interest rates are still high. Personal debt increasing. Risk of defaults for US Companies at the highest levels, since the Great Recession. Big Tech, and seemingly everyone else, is laying people off. The Salesforce CEO has no hiring plans this year, opting to utilize AI instead. Anthropic CEO declares that in a few months, 90% of all code will be written by AI. Klarna going public, while boasting the savings from fired employees being replaced by AI. Hiring for technical employees hasn’t been this low in 15 years, the very period of time, which birthed millions of new technical workers. Job searches for most take 3-6 months, while some take far longer to find anything. Employee engagement hasn’t been this low, since 2014, and it’s easy to understand how being stuck in the same job, unable to find the next career opportunity, may discourage some of the most dedicated employees. Recession is no longer just a long-forgotten fear, with JP Morgan and others predicting the odds of one being as high as 40%.
It seems that it’s all doom and gloom, with the better times for employees in the rearview mirror. Yes, Warren Buffet is sitting on $325 billion dollars now, but it was only because he sold an enormous amount of stock, before the stock market began losing its value. What’s even more alarming is that AI isn’t going away and isn’t replacing lost jobs, when companies, like Meta firing thousands of workers – 5% of entire workforce, while also hiring a few ML developers, far less than laid off people.
Many MAGA supporters love what President Trump is doing, convinced that the changes he has in mind is exactly what’s been missing from America’s shine. Economically, it makes little sense to fire so many Federal employees, when consumer spending is a major driving force behind the economy’s health, and most Federal spending doesn’t go to salaries, but to entitlement programs, which keep poor people fed, ill people cured, and provide Medicare and Social Security for the retired workforce, all programs paid for by employees and employers, not government itself. If anything, ability to manage money meant for retirement, usually decades later, only makes money for the government. National debt has been growing, with approximately $7.8 trillion added just during Trump’s first term, and yet he’s planning to make the cuts that caused it permanent and add more. What’s the real motivation behind the current administration’s actions then?
In the age of ‘fake news’ and conspiracy theories, it’s become almost trendy to speculate. To this day, for some, Covid vaccines are still seen as harmful, and possibly, Bill Gates’ way of tracking all citizens. Trump openly declared from the debate stage, that the last election was rigged, despite no evidence of notable fraud and many failed Court actions. Alex Jones lost his business after lying about Sandy Hook’s murdered children, but Fox News had far deeper pockets and just paid off the harmed parties, while continuing their reporting without many changes, with firms like Breitbart never even skipping a beat.
Sincerely hoping, that this article will be read by plenty of you, while not making it on the ‘I’ll sue you, or take it back’ MAGA bandwagon, here is a more obvious reason for destroying the US government and it’s agencies: Trump’s favorite way of making money has always been borrowing money and not repaying it. Deutsche Bank’s loan made the news, but it barely portrays a true picture of that trend. In 1990 Trump owed $4 billion to 72 banks. To avoid dealing with his bankruptcy, much of that debt was forgiven. Between 1991 and 2009, his businesses filed for bankruptcy 6 times, dealing widespread losses for lenders. His Castle Casino Bonds burned up, saving him $200 million he didn’t repay. In 2010 he got almost $300 million forgiven after defaulting on the Chicago Trump Tower. And the easiest way to make that approach work is a down economy and low interest rates, which make borrowing money cheap and bankruptcies predictable. If his administration’s actions will crash the economy, it’ll be a much better motivator for Jerome Powell to lower interest rates vs directing or threatening him to do so. Yes, an economic downturn will hurt a countless number of constituents, but Trump is in his final term, clearly doesn’t care about the ‘opposition’s’ opinion on his legacy, and most importantly, he’s not exactly known for ‘caring for the little guy’, when his charitable donations lowered to $0, and he openly admits that difficulties imposed on citizens will be worth it in the long run, while his administration officials act and speak, like they don’t even care, if a recession may arrive. Lower rates equal increased economic activity, for those who skipped the lessons of Reaganomics, but it will only work for those with a thick savings account, as too many have been living paycheck to paycheck for seemingly too long by now.
Take a typical Private Equity firm. After generally taking a public company private, ala what Musk did with Twitter, costs are cut drastically, focusing on efficiency, sort of like the Big Tech companies have been doing on their own lately. Then, existing contracts and existing customers are squeezed to maximize the immediate return. Once that’s done, the remains of a company are either sold to other investors, or in a rare case of successful changes, taken public again. A more common expression, known to most shampoo users is ‘lather, rinse, repeat’. More often, than not, such companies lay off a lot of people, often bankrupting the firm entirely at the end, while generating maximum profits with minimal expenses in the process. Ramsey Sports and Outdoors knows all about it, and Davey Scatino’s gambling addiction resembles companies’ obsession with profits, at any cost. Perhaps, look at so many failed hospitals and their investors. This formula works for those at the very top, while it’s no longer just the worker bees getting lost in the shuffle. Ask almost any ‘middle manager’ looking for a job about their search. The unsustainability of this approach is balanced out by term-based limits on the executive branch and voters’ constantly swinging moods, but that’s the answer for down the line, not a panacea for being in the eye of the storm.
Little, if anything, can be done about it now. Non-profits, Attorney Generals, and some private and class action suits may get in the way of these changes, but the main damage has already been set with tariffs. Upending allies’ dynamic and unity for presumably building a Trump Gaza Resort or Trump Tower Moscow seems unimaginable, until it actually happens. The key has always been proper marketing and maximizing audience, as his previous success will show. No different, most assume that Elon Musk always worked extremely hard, which is actually true, while his discoveries already made the world a better place, whether through the likes of Tesla and Mars exploration. The reality is quite different from the public image. Tesla was founded by engineers Martin Eberhard and Marc Tarpenning in 2003, and Musk became an early investor and later CEO. He did absolutely nothing to invent SpaceX’s rocket technology, as Tom Mueller did that. He didn’t invent brain-to-computer interfaces for Neuralink. The Boring Company’s transportation, or rather tunneling efforts, were not originated by him either. Elon is a dealmaker only, who grew a rather small amount of money borrowed from his father to the current empire. No wonder, he seems like such a good fit next to Trump, who was all about making deals and is treating our country now, as Musk did Twitter, upon buying it.
Laws matter, but in a wealth-obsessed capitalistic mecca, money is the primary driving force. It’s virtually impossible to ignore Musk growing $28,000 to his current wealth in 30 years, or Trump turning the approximately $400 million from his father to his present fortune, regardless of any legal ramifications. After all, an army of Trump loyalists sentenced to prison and even his own felony conviction, besides a slew of civil awards, where he losses 93% of the time, didn’t prevent him from being elected President, avoiding jail, and wreaking havoc on the country’s alliances and livelihood.
With no chance of ‘waking up from this dream’ (or nightmare, for many), what is one to do? Being laid off from one job can lead to an even better one elsewhere. Losing something creates a space for something else to be found. At times, it’s more of a Zen Buddhism slogan, than a map to success. These times call for accepting the rules of the game and adjusting to new market conditions. Nobody knows exactly when AI will replace most of the workforce. Nobody even knows if a recession will arrive any time soon. Unpredictability is the only certainty of these times. Navigating it has indeed become far more difficult, considering the current obstacles and market signs, yet the option of doing nothing has never been available, regardless of the current President or changing market conditions.
